Fuzzy Supply-Chain Bunch Graphs for Cyclone Repair Planning
Abstract
Cyclone response must select repairs before road capacity, travel time, and restored demand are known precisely. A fuzzy supply-chain bunch graph is introduced for hub-and-branch relief networks. Each branch is an edge-disjoint path from a central depot, while travel capacity, survival, repair cost, and service value are represented by triangular fuzzy quantities. A branch-prefix dominance theorem proves that repairing a downstream edge without its failed upstream predecessors is never optimal. The repair problem consequently reduces from an arbitrary edge-subset problem to a multiple-choice knapsack over branch prefixes. An exact dynamic program is derived, together with monotonicity of the optimal guaranteed service across the alpha-confidence level and a perturbation bound. A four-branch cyclone example includes medical, food, water, and shelter routes. With an alpha level of 0.6, budget 100, and minimum medical and water access, the optimal plan repairs two medical edges, two water edges, and one shelter edge, producing guaranteed service 122. An unconstrained service-only solution produces 125 but leaves the medical branch inaccessible, demonstrating why equity constraints must be explicit. Budget and alpha profiles reveal repair-plan changes that a single deterministic calculation would conceal.
Keywords:
Supply-chain resilience, Fuzzy bunch graph, Cyclone logistics, Repair optimization, Dynamic programming, Alpha cutReferences
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